Since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, East Asia has implemented a number of initiatives designed to strengthen monetary and financial cooperation, bolstering the region's resilience to economic and financial vulnerabilities. One such initiative is the ASEAN & 3 Information Exchange and Policy Dialogue, which includes development of early warning systems (EWS) for financial crises. This book examines efforts to develop EWS models. Specifically, the book analyses the current understanding of the causes of currency and banking crises, describes recent progress in developing and applying EWS models for currency and banking crises, reviews methodological isues, assesses the predictive power of EWS models and also highlights areas where further research is required to make these models more effective tools for policy analysis. The case studies apply both parametric and nonparametric approaches to EWS modeling using data from six East Asian countries.

Since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, countries in East Asia have made efforts to promote regional monetary and financial cooperation to complement the evolving international financial architecture. This increased interest in regional monetary and financial cooperation has resulted in several initiatives - the ASEAN Surveillance Process, the ASEAN+3 Finance Ministers Process including its Chiang Mai Initiative of 2000, the Manila Framework Group and the Asia-Europe Finance Ministers Process to name a few. These developments in some ways represent a significant break from the past. Going forward the key challenge is how to set priorites and sequence developments so as to smooth the path to a new regional financial architecture. This two-volume set takes up the issue of developing a road map of policy options, both at the regional and country levels, for carrying forward the ongoing efforts in monetary and financial cooperation in East Asia. Building on a series of core reports and background papers by eminent economists and policymakers around the world commissioned under an ADB technical assistance project, the books explore what is feasible and desirable in regional monetary and financial cooperation and lays out a road map for putting the concept into action over the next several years. Volume 1 contains an overview by Peter Montiel, and three core studies by Olam Chaipravat, Eric Girardin, and Takatoshi Ito and Yung-Chul Park. Volume 2 contains background papers by Robert J. Barro; Elbliog'onore Boiscuvier and Alfred Steinherr; Barry Eichengreen; Jeffrey A. Frankel; Eric Girardin; Jong-Wha Lee; Yung-Chul Park and Kwanho Shin; Ronald McKinnon; Eiji Ogawa, Takatoshi Ito, and YuriNagataki Sasaki; Ramkishen Rajan and Reza Siregar; Yunjong Wang and Wing Thye Woo; and Charles Wyplosz. The volumes and the study on which they were based were conceptualized, supervised, and coordinated by Pradumna B. Rana and Srinivasa Madhur.

This report reviews the social bond market and explores how social bonds can help tackle a wide range of development issues in Asia and the Pacific. The social bond market has grown rapidly amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. This report explores ways of maximizing the impact of social bonds for sustainable development and of supporting a well-functioning social bond market. It analyzes the impact areas that social bonds have addressed to date and introduces the impact measurement techniques that are in use and under development. It notes the need for common standards of information disclosure and impact measurement.

Provides a comprehensive analysis of macroeconomic issues in developing Asia, including economic growth projections and prospects by country and region. This year's theme chapter explores how to strengthen disaster resilience.

This publication identifies investment approaches, opportunities, and finance mechanisms in Southeast Asia that can promote and catalyze funds for a sustainable ocean economy. It provides an overview of the "blue economy"" and emphasizes its significance for protecting the biodiversity of natural resources in Southeast Asia. The "blue economy" is defined as the sustainable use of ocean and coastal resources to drive economic growth and improve livelihoods, while protecting and nurturing marine ecosystems. The publication looks how multilateral and bilateral funding sources, a market-based approach, incentives, and regulations can contribute to achieving a blue economy. It also discusses how these elements need to be aligned within a cohesive development framework.

This publication provides updates on the bond market in Thailand since 2016. The ASEAN+3 Bond Market Guide series provides information on the investment climate, rules, laws, opportunities, and characteristics of bond markets in Asia and the Pacific. It aims to help bond market issuers, investors, and financial intermediaries understand the local context and encourage greater participation in the region's rapidly developing bond markets. This edition updates the ASEAN+3 Bond Market Guide 2016: Thailand.

This publication examines tourism in Asia and the Pacific, the impacts on it of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, and how it might be reset to contribute more effectively to the Sustainable Development Goals. The report highlights six pathways for promoting systemic change in the sector: a value-driven approach, decarbonization, tourism-led regeneration, improved governance, and sustainable finance. It provides concrete recommendations on how policymakers and industry stakeholders can leverage tourism to foster sustainable development and a green recovery in Asia and the Pacific.

This publication highlights short-term actions that can mitigate pressures and medium-term policy considerations for finance sector resilience in the post-COVID-19 period. The guidance note examines the effects of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on real economies and the measures taken to ease the impact. It notes risks to financial stability, such as an anticipated rise in nonperforming assets. Its recommendations include establishing a framework for epidemic risk financing, buttressing financial stability and macroprudential measures, developing insurance markets for risk sharing and transfer solutions, improving SME financing, and fostering digital transformation.

This publication assesses the Government of Bhutan's financial relief measures for the most affected people, as well as programs and other interventions to address the impact of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. The strategic thrust of interventions for the sector is based on striking the right balance between the immediate need to engage the economically displaced while simultaneously initiating major reforms and investments for a sustainable reopening.

The Pacific region is expected to contract by 0.6% in 2021, and to grow by 4.7% in 2022. This issue of the Pacific Economic Monitor explores how the region can reopen and rebuild. Besides safely resuming travel and protecting health, a resilient recovery will depend on promoting fiscal sustainability and strengthening economic management, including regional cooperation to revitalize tourism.

This report explores how regional cooperation and integration (RCI) can be enhanced in Asia and the Pacific to help the region build back resiliently and sustainably from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. The report reflects on lessons learned from efforts to tackle the pandemic through regional cooperation and integration. It provides insights on how region-wide solidarity can be enhanced with the support of multilateral development banks in areas such as trade and investment, connectivity infrastructure, people's mobility, regional public goods, and policy cooperation. The report was jointly prepared by the ADB, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the Islamic Development Bank, and the World Bank Group.

This publication provides updates on the bond market in Indonesia since 2017. The ASEAN+3 Bond Market Guide series provides information on the investment climate, rules, laws, opportunities, and characteristics of bond markets in Asia and the Pacific. It aims to help bond market issuers, investors, and financial intermediaries understand the local context and encourage greater participation in the region's rapidly developing bond markets. This edition updates the ASEAN+3 Bond Market Guide 2017: Indonesia.

This edition sets out recent developments in East Asian local currency bond markets and discusses the region's economic outlook, the risk of another taper tantrum, and price differences between labeled and unlabeled green bonds. Emerging East Asia's local currency (LCY) bond markets expanded to an aggregate USD21.7 trillion at the end of September 2021, posting growth of 3.4% quarter-on-quarter, up from 2.9% in the previous quarter. LCY bond issuance rose 6.8% quarter-on-quarter to USD2.4 trillion in Q3 2021. Sustainable bond markets in ASEAN+3 also continued to expand to reach a size of USD388.7 billion at the end of September.

This report examines the impacts of COVID-19 on labour markets along with adjustment patterns in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. Labour markets in Southeast Asia were particularly hit hard in 2020 when government pandemic containment measures were most severe. COVID-19 exacerbated growing inequalities in the region and exposed large gaps in social protection . This report aims to help policymakers identify priorities, constraints, and opportunities for developing effective labour market strategies for economic recovery and beyond.

This report forecasts growth in developing Asia of 7.1% in 2021 and 5.4% in 2022 in an uneven recovery caused by divergent growth paths. Its theme chapter explores sustainable agriculture. Growth forecasts are revised up for East Asia and Central Asia from the projections made in April, but down for South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific. This reflects differences in vaccination progress and control of domestic COVID-19 outbreaks but also other factors, including rising commodity prices and depressed tourism. Inflation is expected to remain under control. The main risks to the economic outlook come from the COVID-19 pandemic, including the emergence of new variants, slower-than-expected vaccine rollouts, and waning vaccine effectiveness. Sustainable food production and agricultural systems that are resilient to climate change will be crucial for developing Asia. To transform agriculture in the region, its economies must tackle challenges from changing consumer demand, changing demographics, and a changing and more fragile environment.

The Asia Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise Monitor provides data and analysis as a resource for evidence-based policy design. This year's edition focuses on South Asia. This first volume reviews micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) at the country and regional levels. It covers Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, and examines MSME development, access to finance, and policies and regulations. It notes that revitalizing MSMEs by channeling more growth capital to them will be key to a resilient economic recovery from the pandemic. It highlights opportunities in formalizing MSMEs and connecting them to international markets, expanding digital skills, fostering technology-based start-ups, and supporting youth and women entrepreneurs.

This publication describes how state-owned enterprises (SOEs) can access finance on commercial terms, without sovereign guarantees. Doing so can create fiscal space for governments and new sources of finance for important investments. ADB is committed to SOE reform that supports access to commercial finance in its developing member countries, as also emphasized in Strategy 2030. With the rise of commercial finance for SOEs, this publication details the steps to enhance the bankability of SOEs. It also explains how the risks of such borrowing, including defaults and moral hazards created by implicit guarantees, can be managed.

This strategy outlines a regional approach for advancing gender equality and women's empowerment in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS). The six GMS countries share common challenges and issues that prevent women from fully benefiting from economic opportunities. Many of these challenges have been further exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. The strategy identifies strategic directions and key entry points to mainstream gender across all operational areas of the GMS Economic Cooperation Program. It has been designed to add value to the GMS Program Strategic Framework 2030 and to complement national initiatives of the GMS countries to bolster gender equality.

This publication draws on findings from a survey on the green bond market in Malaysia to provide insights on what support is needed to further develop the country's sustainable finance market. The survey assessed the interest of institutional investors in green bond issuances in Malaysia. It helped identify drivers and impediments for the development of country's sustainable finance market, as well as priority areas in which ADB and other development partners could provide support.

This publication shows how ADB continues to explore new ways to deepen its relationship with civil society organizations (CSOs) and increase the impact of its development projects in South Asia. Drawing on comprehensive data, it emphasizes how meaningful CSO involvement throughout the lifecycle of a development project helps ensure ADB's schemes are more organized and better designed to generate positive outcomes. Underlining the value of meaningful CSO engagement, the publication calls for empowering civil society to harness their specialist knowledge and engage them in policy dialogue that can help build a resilient future in Asia and the Pacific.

This publication explores how a local currency government bond market can strengthen economic recovery from COVID-19. It focuses on the Lao People's Democratic Republic, which faces many challenges shared by other developing countries. It examines how the Lao PDR can benefit from the experiences of its neighbors in the Asian Bond Markets Initiative and highlights the essential building blocks for developing an efficient government bond market with sound cash and debt management.

This publication shares the results of a survey to help identify drivers, impediments, and priorities for Indonesia's sustainable finance market to inform support for its development. The survey assessed institutional investors' interest in green bonds issued in Indonesia and explored the perspectives of local arrangers and underwriters on their clients' interest in green bond issuances. The findings serve as a resource to inform action to accelerate the market's development. The publication was prepared in collaboration with the Global Green Growth Institute.

This thematic chapter shows how the Russian invasion of Ukraine and related sanctions are affecting micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) in Central and West Asia and suggests policy responses to mitigate the impact. It draws on the results of business surveys in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan carried out six months after the start of the invasion. It assesses the invasion's macroeconomic impact, outlines its effect on global supply chains, and explores MSME responses. Highlighting how countries are converting risks into opportunities, it notes that strengthening domestic commodity markets and increasing digitalization and available capital could help make MSMEs more resilient.

This report shows how the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) can leverage its regional position to boost trade, increase agriculture, and harness the power of its cities to promote inclusive and equitable growth. Analyzing the Lao PDR's production and trading structure, it details the Greater Mekong Subregion's plan to improve competitiveness, community, and connectivity in order to converge income and living standards between members. Outlining the need for structural transformation, it discusses the potential for the Lao PDR to upgrade its value chain positioning, diversify its industries, and capitalize on regional cooperation to achieve its development targets.

This issue explores how Pacific developing member countries can strengthen their post-pandemic social protection systems to help address long-standing development concerns and boost resilience to further shocks. It assesses individual countries' economies and outlines ways they could improve their social protection systems, despite depleted resources. Exploring megatrends facing the subregion, including population ageing and migration, it shows how investing in universal social protection policies can have a long-term impact on reducing poverty, vulnerability, and social exclusion.